Global equity markets remained constructive in August. Robust economic data, largely convincing corporate results and the increasing commercialisation of artificial intelligence supported the markets and eased fears of an imminent recession.
At the same time, the environment remains challenging: geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rising energy prices and stubborn inflationary pressure are coinciding with ambitious valuations. As a result, the future path of interest rates and the resilience of the real economy are coming even more sharply into focus.
Below, we highlight key topics from the latest Market Overview and examine the questions that are likely to be of particular concern to investors at present.
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Equities and commodities: AI put to productive use
The technology sector once again proved to be a key performance driver for international stock markets. The productive use of AI is increasingly translating into real earnings growth, expanding operating margins and improved earnings outlooks. At the same time, healthy sector rotation contributed to greater market breadth. However, equity market valuations remain at ambitious levels and continue to depend on a stable, predictable and prospectively lower interest-rate environment.
How sustainable is the current momentum in the face of ambitious valuations and heightened geopolitical risks?
Fixed Income: The real economy defies the risks
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to key shipping routes are weighing on international trade flows and fuelling inflationary pressure. At the same time, the fundamental data for the real economy remain remarkably resilient – particularly the US labour market and private consumption. This is further reinforcing the scenario of interest rates remaining restrictive for longer, or “higher for longer”. Yields at the short end remain attractive, while greater volatility can be expected at longer maturities.
What role can short maturities and the current yield on high-quality bonds play in this environment?
Alternative investments: Transparency in private debt
Private debt has developed into an important asset class in the portfolios of many Swiss pension institutions. At the same time, the absence of daily market pricing places particular demands on transparency, due diligence and performance measurement. The Market Overview compares two approaches: the peer-group method using private market indices and the synthetic method based on liquid benchmarks with a defined premium. Both methods have specific advantages and disadvantages and are suited to different strategic purposes.
Which benchmark method is suitable for private debt – and for which purpose?
Resilience meets new uncertainties
The market environment continues to be shaped by opposing forces. Solid corporate results, the productive use of AI and a resilient real economy are supporting the markets. At the same time, geopolitical risks, structural inflationary pressure and high valuations mean that future developments remain highly dependent on monetary policy and the interest-rate environment.
This makes it all the more important to assess the various influencing factors carefully and to take a differentiated view of developments across equity, bond and private markets.
Further insights and detailed information can be found in the latest Tellco Market Overview 09/2026.